MLS xG analysis and charts through Week 14

With the rise of advanced analytics in soccer, expected goals (xG) has become a go-to metric for examining the quality of both clubs and individual players beyond base accumulation stats (goals, assists, etc.).

Inspired by Ben Mayhew of Experimental 3-6-1, who utilizes similar statistics for the English Football League, the below table and charts are an examination of the attacking, defensive and overall quality of MLS clubs, regularly updated throughout the 2019 season.

All clubs have played between 13-17 matches so far in 2019, approaching the midpoint of the regular season. Trends have become firm, though still alterable with a second-half switch. That becomes less likely as we continue – barring a Sounders-esque miracle run.

Some items of note:

· LAFC are still absolutely killing it. They have the best attack by far, with their 19 shots per game as best in the league by four shots more than the next closest team – and they convert those into goals at the second-best rate, trailing only the Sounders. Defensively, however, they now have a match in Atlanta United, who share almost exactly identical metrics in shots faced per game and shots faced per goal allowed. It’s not exactly a crash back to Earth, but the first semblance of competitiveness another club has shown LAFC all year.

· The New York Red Bulls have rebounded tremendously from their early season woes. While their matches tend to be low-volume in terms of shots in both directions, the Red Bulls defense has quietly become one of the five most efficient league-wide. The offense continues to lag, however, shooting at too low of a volume to take ideal advantage of their clinical finishing. If the offense can catch up to the defense, they’ll jump from the second-tier of clubs into the top alongside LAFC, Atlanta and… the Houston Dynamo?

· If I asked you to name the second-best team in the league based on xG, would you guess the Houston Dynamo? Other teams are more efficient on offense – like the Union – and defense – like the Red Bulls, but the xG numbers draw your eye to the Dynamo behind LAFC. The Union and Fire both have a case in this metric, but it’s close enough to be a toss-up between the three.

· Three most lucky clubs (based on GD-xGD, i.e. how much better their GD is vs. their xGD)

o Seattle Sounders FC (11.68)

o D.C. United (11.41)

o New York Red Bulls (7.38)

· Three most unlucky clubs (based on GD-xGD, i.e. how much worse their GD is vs. their xGD)

o New England Revolution (-8.63)

o Chicago Fire (-8.49)

o FC Cincinnati (-8.39)

All xG totals are sourced from American Soccer Analysis’ xG Interactive Tables.

Here is a small glossary of the terms for clarity:

GP – Games Played
ShtF – Shots For
ShtA – Shots Against
GF – Goals For
GA – Goals Against
GD – Goal Differential
xGF – Expected Goals For
xGA – Expected Goals Against
xGD – Expected Goal Differential
GD-xGD – Goal Differential minus Expected Goal Differential
ShtF/g – Shots For per Game
ShtA/g – Shots Against per Game
GF/g – Goals For per Game
GA/g – Goals Against per Game
GD/g – Goal Differential per Game
xGF/g – Expected Goals For per Game
xGA/g – Expected Goals Against per Game
xGD/g – Expected Goal Differential per Game
ShtF/GF – Shots For per Goal For
ShtA/GA – Shots Against per Goal Against

Follow Colton on Twitter: @cjcoreschi.

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