KJ’s Week 1 MLS picks
Photo credit: Harrah’s/Caesars
2017 record: 0-0
Profit/loss: 0.00
I probably won’t have this many plays during most weeks, but why not come out with a bang for Major League Soccer’s opening weekend? Here goes:
Portland Timbers/Minnesota United FC Under 3.0 -130
Risk 65 to win 50
Bookmakers are probably counting on Minnesota to hemorrhage goals this season, but Portland didn’t exactly perform up to expectations in 2016. This one might push, but I fancy a two-goal game more than a four-goal game, thus some value.
Columbus Crew SC/Chicago Fire Over 2.5 -140
Risk 70 to win 50
Both of these clubs had leaky defenses in 2016. While Crew SC spent some money on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, Chicago’s attack also started clicking late in 2016 and got bolstered by some nice offseason additions. Crew SC’s potent attack remains completely intact. Expect this one to go over, but keep an eye on Ola Kamara’s status (concussion). If he sits, that’s probably enough to stay away.
LA Galaxy/FC Dallas Under 2.5 -115
Risk 57.50 to win 50
The Galaxy’s attack, while certainly not poor, has never been elite without Robbie Keane in the mix. Dallas’ back line is as sturdy as they come. Look for this game to be a gutsy, low-scoring affair.
Colorado Rapids/New England Revolution Under 2.5 -135
Risk 67.50 to win 50
Colorado was the epitome of an “under team” last season, and nothing in the offseason happened to drastically change that perception in my eyes. New England, meanwhile, was the second lowest-scoring team in the Eastern Conference in 2016. Go under.
Seattle Sounders Pick ‘Em +105
Risk 50 to win 52.50
There isn’t much to this one. Take the defending champs, who finished last season in ridiculous form despite getting lucky to escape as champions after a producing a dud in the MLS Cup final besides the shootout. Houston’s underwhelming offseason is just another notch on the belt of the most boring club in MLS.
San Jose Earthquakes/Montreal Impact Draw +240
Risk 41.67 to win 100
The Earthquakes tend to produce very solid, yet low-scoring performances at home. When the road team is the better club, it’s generally a good time to look at the draw. This game has 1-1 written all over it.
Orlando City SC/New York City FC Draw +255
Risk 39.22 to win 100
This match projects to be one of the more higher-scoring games of the weekend, so you’re probably hoping for a 1-1 or 2-2 final here. Even 3-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Whatever the score, I think the draw has a bit of value.
Philadelphia Union +1/2 -115
Risk 57.50 to win 50
Vancouver doesn’t look like a playoff team on paper, and the Union really came into their own last season, making the playoffs. The Whitecaps also just played a CONCACAF Champions League game on Thursday and featured some starters, so tired legs could be an issue. Take the better and fresher road team plus 1/2 so you’ll win on a Philly win or draw.
New York Red Bulls Pick ‘Em -105
Risk 52.50 to win 50
Yes, I’m very impressed with the construction of Atlanta’s roster. No, I don’t believe they have a magical talisman that’ll make them avoid the inevitable expansion-team blues. Take the known commodity in this one.
